Five Democrats may be poised to hand United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi another political defeat.
Milton Friedman, a Nobel Prize winner in the field of economics, said, “If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.” Much of the time, the quote depicts the state of politics in America today.
Pelosi’s House is not unified. Since taking control in 2020, the political pendulum in the House has moved left, with Progressives pushing for more and Moderates arguing that legislation, particularly as it pertains to finances, goes too far.
The divided House has contributed to Pelosi pulling, revamping, or losing several bills she would like to see pushed through—the recent $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill is a case in point.
When, after weeks of infighting, it was evident that Moderates would block that bill, it was restructured and reintroduced as a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. That bill only passed when Pelosi promised Progressives a reconciliation bill would follow (before Thanksgiving), and Moderates were promised that the follow-up reconciliation bill would be supported by cost projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
At this point, President Biden has signed the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, and Pelosi is poised to move forward with a vote on the reconciliation spending plan bill.
However, CBO numbers, which are expected by Friday, may threaten the support of Moderate Democrats.
The five Democrats in question are Reps. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), Ed Case (D-Hawaii), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.), and Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.).
All five refused to support the bill when it was previewed earlier this month, insisting that the CBO must provide information on the bill’s true cost, and that those numbers must correlate with numbers presented by the White House.
A Fox News report includes this quote from a representative speaking for the five Moderates:
“We commit to voting for the Build Back Better act, in its current form other than technical changes, as expeditiously as we receive fiscal information from the Congressional Budget Office — but in no event later than the week of November 15th — consistent with the toplines for revenues and investments.”
The CBO will release their support this week, and a vote may take place as early as Saturday.
In an interview with Fox Business Monday, Marc Goldwein, Senior Vice President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) said that the CBO’s report will likely show that IRS funding to support the bill will be $250 billion less than what the White House is projecting.
Goldwein also said the CRFB estimates the Democrats’ reconciliation bill could cost trillions more than the $1.8 trillion bill on the table.
Sounding the alarm, the CRFB released a report yesterday warning lawmakers that the bill utilizes accounting tricks to obscure spending totals, which could raise the bill’s true cost to $4.9 trillion.
The New York Times reports that groundwork is being laid to prepare lawmakers for the variance in cost projections and what some may view as an unfavorable CBO report.
Moderate Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said, “We’ve known that for quite a while. It’s concerning. Sure, it’s concerning.”
Fox News also reports that other Democrats have expressed reservations on the reconciliation bill. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) said:
“We want to see what the CBO usually does, not an abbreviated one. So let’s see what they have. And, you know, we want to see what we’re going to be voting on. So let’s see what comes out by Friday.”
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